Still Looking for a BCS Bid

While the Hawkeyes had their Rose Bowl dreams dashed on Saturday with a tough 27-24 overtime loss to Ohio State, Iowa's chances for a BCS bowl bid are still very much alive thanks to the great effort that they gave against the Buckeyes and a couple of key losses elsewhere.

While Iowa fans probably aren't taking any comfort in the loss on Saturday, the fact is that the Hawkeye Football team is still in a very good shape when it comes to landing one of the coveted spots in a Bowl Championship Series game in early January.

First, the Hawkeyes exceeded all the experts predictions of a potential blowout loss to the Buckeyes in Columbus. Everyone who follows college football knows that the Horseshoe is one of the toughest places to play and Iowa ran this one right to the end and then some.

Then, losses by USC, who was blown out by Stanford, and a loss by Miami,FL put them on the outside looking in when it comes to a possible BCS bid.

That opens the door a little wider for the Hawkeyes, but they still have work to do.

First and foremost, the most important thing that Iowa can do is keep a prized pig in his southern home for one more year this coming Saturday and defeat Minnesota. Do that and the chances of the Hawkeyes playing in a BCS game are still on the table.

A loss on Saturday and the Hawkeyes are looking squarely in the eye of a return trip to Florida. I think most Iowa fans feel a whole lot better about Iowa's chances of winning this weekend thanks to the performance of redshirt freshman James Vandenberg on Saturday, who filled in and then some for injured starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who is sidelined with an ankle injury.

The BCS rankings were released on Sunday and Iowa came in at #13, which is within the Top14 that a team needs to be to be considered for one of the at-large berths. That's the good news.

Now the bad news is that one of their fellow Big Ten schools with a college football icon is also in that mix. That's right, Penn State, who Iowa defeated earlier this year in State College, is right there as well at #14. This weekend the Nittany Lions play Michigan State and if Iowa fans want to take a rooting interest in that one, pick the Spartans.

The other potential at-large school that could be in play is Oklahoma State, who is currently ranked #12 in the BCS poll. They have a date in a couple of weeks with in-state rival Oklahoma in Norman, so Iowa fans might want to get behind Bob Stoops club in that one.

The most likely destination right now for Iowa could be the Fiesta Bowl, which is played on January 4th in Glendale, Arizona. But, there is also a chance that the Orange Bowl could have an opportunity to pick the Hawkeyes as well as the Sugar Bowl, who had a bowl scout in Columbus this past weekend.

The BCS selection process is a bit confusing, so here is a quick rundown of the process. Let's assume that the winner of the SEC Championship game between Alabama and Florida will go to the title game. That is pretty much a given as long as neither team loses any of their remaining regular season contests.

The other team in the national title game will likely be Texas, again assuming they do not lose any of their remaining regular season games and they win the Big 12 title game in early December.

From there, the BCS has designated conferences for the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, and Orange Bowl. The Rose will be filled by Ohio State and the winner of the Pac-10, which is yet to be decided. The Orange Bowl takes the winner of the ACC title game, which at this point appears to be Georgia Tech. The Fiesta and Sugar would be without their league title rep, the Big 12 and SEC because they would be meeting in the title game.

That means they will get the first at-large selection which comes from a pool of the Big East Champion (Pittsburgh or Cincinnati) and any team in the Top 14 of the final BCS poll. Any team ranked in the top four is assured of being picked so that means at this time, TCU is in.

The selection process then goes as follows, the Sugar would get the first replacement pick and would likely go with the loser of the Alabama/Florida game. Since only two teams from any one league can be picked, any SEC team in the Top 14 is automatically off the board.

But, after that, it gets interesting. The Fiesta would be up next and they have a decision to make. More than likely they will go for an at-large team that will generate fans coming to their city to fill up seats and spend money in their community. That's what bowl games are all about and don't let anyone tell you anything differently.

Again, assuming that teams win out and stay within the Top 14, it could come down to Iowa or Penn State or perhaps, Oklahoma State. All three have great fan bases that tend to travel well, but the Hawkeyes and the Nittany Lions are probably holding an edge here. But, Oklahoma State is close to Arizona, so geography in a tough economy could play a role.

Iowa holds the head to head win over Penn State, but the Nittany Lions have the Paterno factor and that cannot be dismissed. There is a more national appeal with Paterno, like it or not. Right now, I would say it is a coin flip on paper and I can't rule out Oklahoma State if they go to Norman and beat the Sooners.

Perhaps the Fiesta goes in a different direction and picks a team like TCU and then that opens the door to the Orange Bowl, where Iowa brought nearly 50,000 fans to back in January of 2003. Of course, Penn State also traveled plane loads of fans there in the past as well, so again, coin flip. I don't see the Orange passing on a more brand name conference team given that Georgia Tech doesn't have a huge fan following, so it probably won't play out beyond this game.

There is still a Doomsday Scenario that could play out involving Texas the Big 12 title game. If Texas, who will be a huge favorite in the game no matter who they play, happened to lose, then all bets are off. That would send the Big 12 North Champion to the Fiesta Bowl and Texas would get one of the at-large spots and probably put Iowa's BCS hopes on life support. It's an unlikely scenario, but it's still out there.

My best guess right now:

BCS Title game: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Boise State
Fiesta: Iowa vs. TCU

If Iowa gets passed over by the BCS after winning this weekend, then a Capital One Bowl re-match with LSU is very likely.

From Rivals.