In Freakanomics, University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt included a chapter entitled, "If Drug Dealers Make So Much Money, Why Do They All Live With Their Mothers?" His answer: the average drug dealer in fact makes less than minimum wage--certainly not rich in anywhere outside of, perhaps, sub-Saharan Africa.
This post presents a similar question. Every year, all of us--being in Chicago after all--hear nothing but endless hype about Illinois' amazing football recruiting class. Four star this, and five star that, and we-beat-out-U.S.C.-that. Yet, as Big Bill pointed out so adroitly, Illinois Football: The Journey was canceled, so to speak, before the begining of December. In other news, I have to worry about fighting through another wicked hangover to watch the Hawkeyes on New Year's Day. Oh, and how am I going to fit the Winter Classic into my television schedule?
What gives?
I can't take complete credit for the observations that follow, as some was suggested by various posters on the Iowa Football forum at Iowa.Rivals.com. The hattip out of the way, I see two possible ways of resolving this paradox. Either Ron Zook is as bad at recruiting as he is at coaching, or the Iowa Coaching is a lot better at evaluating talent than the news services give them credit for.
(1) The Zooker is Stupid. I wish www.fireronzook.com was still up and running. The first time I saw it, I laughed heartily at the very concept. However, it was more than funny--it was a great moment for democracy. A moment when the information revolution allowed the murmor of popular discontent to echo far and wide. The message: Ron Zook is one of the least talented head coaches in D-1A football.
As Hawkeye fans, we've seen his ineptitude first hand. Stupid decisions, errors in game manegment, and an inability to give his team the extra "edge" it needs at times. I don't want to hate. But, sometimes honesty hurts. In Ron Zook's case, the results speak for themselves. In his four years at Illinois, he has a 18-30 record. What's more, Ron Zook has never won a bowl game as a head coach.
Now, the popular storyline is that despite Ron Zook's less than stellar ability to actually "coach" his team, he is genius at assembling a talented roster. The narrative goes that the Zooker has a special apptitude for "identifying" with high school seniors, and that his "down to earth" nature allows him to lure prized recruits to Illinois. Another side to this conventional narrative asserts that the Zooker uses borderline illegal recruiting tactics, some claiming that he developed blisters from the illicit use of his Blackberry, and that he is willing to promise every player the world, even if the truth is something far different. For what it is worth, I think that both arguments are essentially two sides of the same coin--both assert that the Zooker is in fact a good coach.
I'm wondering if this in fact true. For all the Zooker's amazing players, I don't see all of them earning All Big-Ten honors. Maybe the Zooker isn't a very good of football talent. Maybe, because of his smaller than normal intellect, he is forced to rely on mere rankings, and cannot provide an independent evaluation of talent that is much better than the talking heads who don't get paid to pick who the best high school players in the country are.
To be fair, this might not be much of a criticism. For reasons that don't belong on a sports blog, I am very skeptical of ever being able to beat the herd when it comes to selecting something, whether it is stocks, football prospects, or a high quality attorney. If we imagine that the people who are being chosen, be it fund managers, college recruiters, or attorneys, are by in large already employed in their given profession, the odds are that the vast majority of folks will be in the center of the bell curve. Moreover, if the peculiar success of outliers was due to something less ephemeral than luck, those concrete methods would be quickly utilized by all others engaged in the competitive activity--think film study, the 40 yard dash, etc. But, I digress.
In short, I think that Illinois is a poor team because, in addition to being a poor coach, the Zooker is a shitty judge of talent. Sure, he can stack his team with four and five star recruits as ranked by Rivals. But, the State of Illinois does not pay Rivals.com what they pay the Zooker.
(2) Kirk Ferentz & Co. is a lot better at evaluating talent than Rivals.com:
Chad Greenway, Dallas Clark, Robert Gallery--pick your favorate Hawkeye overacheiver. To the best of my knowledge, not one of these individuals was recruited by another major college--South Dakota State University does not count. Yet, you can see every last one of them playing on Sundays, in addition to Bob "the Hitman" Sanders.
Iowa consistently garners medicore grades for its recruiting classes. The lone exception was the highly touted 2005 recruiting class. And, we all know how that went. So, in the same fashion that the Zooker isn't any better than Rivals.com, maybe Kirk & Co. is superior. By definition, that would seem to follow from the results he has gotten from recruits that were otherwise passed over.
Anyway, food for thought. Please comment below, and Merry Christmas!
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